Methodology
How we calculate your pass probability
No formulas. No hand-wavy estimates. We simulate 10,000 possible challenge outcomes using your actual trading behavior.
The problem with guessing
Prop firm evaluations cost $300–$600. The industry failure rate sits around 85%. Most traders enter with a gut feeling about their readiness, maybe a glance at recent P&L. Neither holds up under scrutiny.
The question you actually need answered: given how you trade, what are the chances your equity curve hits the profit target before it breaches any risk limit over 30 to 60 trading days?
That's a statistical question. You can answer it with a simulation.
Adaptive block bootstrap
Standard Monte Carlo treats each day as independent. That destroys your winning and losing streaks, which are real and meaningful. A normal distribution assumption is worse: trading returns have fat tails, and a bell curve dramatically underestimates extreme losses.
We use adaptive block bootstrap instead. We take your actual daily P&L series, measure its autocorrelation function (how streaky it is), and use the Politis-White method to determine the optimal block length, typically 3 to 7 consecutive days.
Then we resample those blocks 10,000 times, weighting recent trades more heavily, and string them into simulated 30- or 60-day challenge periods. Each day in each simulated path gets checked against every firm-specific rule.
What happens when you upload
Behavioral profiling
The probability number tells you whether you'll pass. The behavioral profile tells you why you won't. We look at position sizing after losses (revenge trading), trade frequency during drawdowns (overtrading), and lot size escalation (gambler patterns).
You get classified as Disciplined, Sniper, Reactive, Overtrader, or Gambler. Each profile maps to specific behavioral changes. A Reactive trader who fixes their revenge trading pattern typically sees a 15-20% improvement in pass probability from that single change.
Firm-specific rule checking
Each firm calculates limits differently. FTMO uses a midnight balance formula for daily loss that resets every night. Apex uses end-of-day trailing drawdown. We model each firm's exact calculations.
| Rule | FTMO | The5ers | Apex |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daily loss | 5% (midnight balance) | 5% (fixed) | Varies |
| Max drawdown | 10% (starting bal) | 10% (trailing) | Trailing EOD |
| Profit target | 10% | 8% | Varies |
| Min trading days | 4 | 3 | None |
Limitations
The simulation assumes your future trading resembles your past. If you change your strategy, the prediction no longer applies. With fewer than 30 trades, confidence intervals widen. Market regime changes (high-volatility news events) are not modeled. This is statistical analysis, not financial advice.